Bank Earnings Week: JPMorgan, Goldman Lead Q4 Reports
Major banks kick off earnings season with Q4 2025 results starting Tuesday. Dealmaking surge and trading revenue expected to offset pressure on net interest income.
Earnings season officially starts Tuesday with the big banks, and Wall Street expects a solid but not spectacular quarter.
JPMorgan Chase reports before the open, followed by Wells Fargo, Bank of America, and Citigroup. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley close out the week Wednesday. Together, these six institutions will set the tone for what's expected to be a strong earnings cycle.
But the headlines this week may have less to do with quarterly results and more to do with management commentary on Fed policy uncertainty and credit card regulation—two curveballs that landed over the weekend.
What Analysts Expect
The setup is favorable. After a two-year drought, investment banking roared back in 2025. Global M&A volume surged 42% year-over-year to $5.1 trillion. IPO activity improved. Debt issuance remained robust.
That means strong advisory and underwriting fees for the universal banks. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, with their outsized capital markets exposure, are positioned to beat.
Here's what the Street is looking for:
| Bank | Report Date | Expected EPS | Key Metrics to Watch |
|---|---|---|---|
| JPMorgan (JPM) | Jan 13 | $4.87-5.01 | NII guidance, Apple Card provisions |
| Wells Fargo (WFC) | Jan 13 | $1.33 | Expense management, loan growth |
| Bank of America (BAC) | Jan 13 | $0.77 | Consumer trends, NII trajectory |
| Citigroup (C) | Jan 13 | $1.21 | Restructuring progress |
| Goldman Sachs (GS) | Jan 15 | $8.15 | Trading revenue, wealth management |
| Morgan Stanley (MS) | Jan 15 | $1.64 | Asset management inflows |
JPMorgan has beaten earnings estimates 82% of the time historically. The largest U.S. bank faces a unique wrinkle this quarter: a $2.2 billion provision for credit losses related to its Apple Card acquisition from Goldman. That hit is well-telegraphed, but the market will want to hear how integration is progressing.
The Net Interest Income Question
Here's where things get tricky. Net interest income—the spread between what banks pay depositors and charge borrowers—has been normalizing after two years of margin expansion.
The Fed's rate-cutting cycle that began in September 2024 has compressed the advantage banks enjoyed when rates were higher. The benchmark rate sits at 3.50%-3.75%, down 175 basis points from the peak.
Jamie Dimon and other CEOs are expected to provide guidance on how NII evolves through 2026. The market expects a slight decline from 2025 levels but wants specifics on the trajectory.
Goldman and Morgan Stanley are less exposed here—they make more money from fees than interest. That's one reason their stocks have outperformed the money-center banks recently.
Trading and Investment Banking
The fourth quarter typically delivers strong trading results, and this one was no exception. Volatility picked up in November and December around the election and year-end positioning.
JPMorgan management said in December they expect markets revenue up in the low-teens percentages compared to Q4 2024. Goldman is likely to show similar strength—the firm generated $15.2 billion in revenue last quarter, up 20% year-over-year.
Investment banking fee guidance matters more than the raw numbers. CEOs will comment on the pipeline of deals heading into 2026. If management teams sound optimistic, the sector could get a bid despite the regulatory noise.
What Could Move Stocks
Beyond the numbers, watch for commentary on:
Credit quality: Consumer delinquencies have been creeping higher. How are charge-offs trending? Is the consumer weakening?
Regulatory environment: What do banks expect from the new administration on capital requirements, stress tests, and consumer protection rules?
Buybacks and dividends: Banks have been aggressive with capital returns. Will that continue?
The wildcard is whatever questions arise from Trump's rate cap proposal. Analysts will ask, and the answers could move stocks more than earnings per share.
Bank stocks hit record highs to end 2025, so expectations are elevated. The bar isn't impossibly high, but there's not much room for disappointment either.