GE Aerospace Q4 Earnings: $175B Backlog Faces Test
Aviation giant reports before the bell with analysts expecting continued strength. Engine demand and services revenue in focus.
GE Aerospace reports fourth-quarter results this morning, and the setup looks favorable.
Analysts expect the aviation powerhouse to deliver revenue of $11.18 billion and adjusted earnings of $1.43 per share. Both figures would represent solid growth from a year ago, though the pace is slowing from the 14% revenue surge posted in the prior-year quarter.
The company's $175 billion backlog—a record—provides visibility that most industrial companies would envy. Airlines are spending aggressively on new aircraft and maintenance, and GE's engines power roughly half the global commercial fleet.
The First Nine Months
GE Aerospace's 2025 performance through September was exceptional.
Adjusted revenue grew 21% year-over-year. Operating margins expanded 140 basis points. Adjusted EPS jumped 46%. Free cash flow reached $5.9 billion. Every metric that matters moved in the right direction.
The third-quarter beat was particularly strong—earnings of $1.66 per share crushed the $1.46 consensus by 13.7%. That's the kind of surprise that typically gets rewarded with a higher multiple.
GE Aerospace has now beaten estimates in four consecutive quarters. Analysts are pricing in a fifth, with the "Earnings ESP" (Expected Surprise Prediction) running at +1.98%. The most accurate estimate sits at $1.45 per share versus the $1.42 consensus—not a huge gap, but directionally positive.
What's Driving Demand
Two engines dominate GE Aerospace's revenue: the LEAP (used in Boeing 737 MAX and Airbus A320neo) and the GE9X (exclusive to the Boeing 777X).
LEAP production has ramped aggressively as Boeing and Airbus work through record order books. Every MAX delivery needs two LEAP engines; every A320neo needs two more. The supply chain has struggled to keep pace, and GE's ability to deliver engines on schedule directly impacts airline capacity.
The services business is even more profitable. Airlines can't fly without regular maintenance, and GE's installed base of engines generates recurring revenue for decades. Margins on aftermarket parts and service contracts run well above new equipment—this is where the real value creation happens.
Military engines add another dimension. The F110 powers F-16s sold globally, and the T901 turboshaft won the Army's Future Attack Reconnaissance Aircraft program. Defense isn't the growth driver, but it provides stable cash flows.
The Analyst View
Wall Street likes what it sees.
The average price target of $353.94 implies 13% upside from Wednesday's close of $313.98. Not transformative, but respectable for a stock that's already doubled since the 2024 spinoff from GE HealthCare.
The industrial machinery sector has gained 6.7% over the past month, reflecting broader optimism about manufacturing activity. GE Aerospace stock was roughly flat during that period, suggesting some of the good news may already be priced in.
That creates an interesting setup: beat expectations convincingly, and the stock likely breaks to new highs. Miss or guide down, and the flat performance could turn into underperformance.
Risks on the Radar
Boeing remains the wild card.
GE Aerospace's fortunes are tied to aircraft deliveries, and Boeing has struggled with quality issues, production delays, and regulatory scrutiny. The 737 MAX crisis of 2019-2020 directly impacted LEAP sales; any recurrence would ripple through to GE's numbers.
Boeing delivered 348 737 aircraft in 2025, well below the company's targets. CEO Kelly Ortberg has committed to ramping production, but execution questions persist. GE can only sell engines for planes that actually get built.
Supply chain constraints also linger. Specialty metals, forgings, and castings remain bottlenecked across the aerospace industry. GE has invested in vertical integration to secure supply, but constraints at any tier can impact delivery schedules.
Trading Considerations
GE Aerospace shares trade at roughly 28 times forward earnings—a premium to the industrial sector average of 19 times. Bulls argue the quality of the franchise justifies the multiple; bears see limited upside at current valuations.
The options market implies a 4-5% move post-earnings, suggesting traders expect a relatively contained reaction. That's lower than the 8-10% swings typical for high-growth tech names but consistent with GE's recent earnings patterns.
For markets broadly, GE's results offer a read on global aviation demand and industrial activity. A strong report would confirm that the aerospace upcycle remains intact despite macro uncertainty.
Results drop at 7:30 AM ET, with the conference call immediately following.