Intel Hits 2-Year High Ahead of Q4 Earnings Today
Shares surge 10% as investors bet on turnaround progress. Fourth-quarter results due after market close with foundry outlook in focus.
Intel's rally has reached a crescendo.
Shares jumped 10% Wednesday to close at a two-year high ahead of the company's fourth-quarter earnings report, due after market close today. The move caps a 35% gain since January 1, as investors position for what could be a pivotal update on the chipmaker's turnaround.
At $50.10, Intel hasn't traded this high since March 2022—back when the foundry ambitions were still largely theoretical and the stock was in early decline from its pandemic peak.
Why the Pre-Earnings Bid
The optimism has a basis beyond hope.
Intel's 18A manufacturing process—the most advanced semiconductor technology ever built in the United States—has moved from development to production. CEO Lip-Bu Tan showed working wafers to President Trump earlier this month, demonstrating that Intel can actually fabricate sub-2-nanometer chips at scale.
That matters because Intel's whole turnaround thesis rests on becoming a credible foundry competitor to TSMC. If 18A works, Intel can manufacture chips for external customers while rebuilding its own product portfolio. If it doesn't, the billions in capital expenditure become a stranded asset.
Northland Capital analyst Gus Richard upgraded Intel to "outperform" Monday, citing the company's technical lead in certain advanced packaging technologies. His note suggested Intel may have a 6-12 month window where it can offer capabilities TSMC can't match—a reversal from years of playing catch-up.
The Numbers to Watch
Wall Street expects Intel to report a loss of $0.02 per share on revenue around $14.5 billion. That's roughly unchanged from the year-ago quarter, when the turnaround was still early.
The loss itself isn't the story. Intel's Lunar Lake processors, built on the 3nm process node sourced externally, have weighed on gross margins due to higher costs. Management telegraphed this headwind, and investors are looking through it.
What matters is the guidance and foundry commentary. Specifically:
Customer traction for 18A: How many design wins has Intel secured? Are major fabless companies—Nvidia, AMD, Qualcomm—seriously evaluating Intel Foundry Services?
Panther Lake timing: Intel's next-generation Core Ultra processors built on 18A are supposed to ship in 2026. Any acceleration or delay changes the investment timeline.
Foundry P&L transparency: Intel has promised to break out foundry financials separately. The initial numbers will be ugly—foundries require massive scale to be profitable—but the trajectory matters.
The Technical Setup
Intel shares broke through resistance at $47 on Wednesday's move, a level that capped rallies in early 2024. The next meaningful resistance sits around $55, which marked the 2023 peak before the foundry struggles became apparent.
Volume was more than double the 90-day average, suggesting institutional buyers are building positions rather than just traders speculating on earnings. When volume confirms price, the move typically has legs.
That said, Intel remains a binary setup. The stock crashed 60% in 2024 when foundry execution stumbled. A disappointing report today could easily give back the recent gains—semiconductor investors have short memories for misses.
The Competitive Context
Intel's rally occurs against a backdrop of semiconductor strength more broadly. The chip sector hit records earlier this month, with AMD, Nvidia, and Micron all posting double-digit January gains.
But Intel's story differs from its peers. AMD and Nvidia are riding AI demand. Micron benefits from memory upcycle dynamics. Intel is betting on manufacturing transformation—a much harder problem that requires years of execution.
The government stake helps. Washington invested $8.9 billion at $20.47 per share last August. At today's price, that position is worth nearly $22 billion. The federal government has both financial and strategic reasons to see Intel succeed, which provides a support level of sorts.
What Traders Are Watching
The options market implies a 12% move in either direction post-earnings—roughly in line with Intel's historical volatility around results. At-the-money straddles are pricing around $6.00, suggesting traders expect fireworks.
For bulls, the setup is straightforward: Intel demonstrates 18A progress, guides to improving margins in the second half, and announces meaningful foundry customer wins. That case supports $60+ over the next six months.
For bears, the risk is execution. Intel has promised turnarounds before—remember Intel 7? Intel 4?—and disappointed. If Tan's team signals any delays or customer hesitation, the stock could retrace quickly to the $40 range where it spent most of late 2025.
Earnings hit after 4 PM ET. The conference call starts at 5 PM.