IPO Pipeline Builds With SpaceX, OpenAI—But History Urges Caution
2026 could see largest venture-backed listings ever at combined $2.5 trillion valuation. Historical data shows 49% average losses three years out.
The IPO market is heating up, and the names in the pipeline could rewrite the record books.
SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic, and Databricks are all reportedly considering public listings this year. Combined, these four companies carry private valuations exceeding $2.5 trillion. If even half of them debut, 2026 will see more large-cap IPO activity than any year since the dot-com era.
But before you start building a shopping list, consider what happens to most IPO investors.
The Brutal History
Research from Jay Ritter at the University of Florida—the academic known as "Mr. IPO"—shows that buying at listing tends to destroy value over meaningful time horizons.
The 311 companies that went public in 2021 delivered collective three-year returns of -49% from first-day closing prices. The 1999 IPO class, which included eventual winners like Nvidia, still returned -48% over three years as the dot-com bubble unwound.
Average first-day returns since 1980 come in around 19%. That's money left on the table for founders and early investors—and a trap for retail buyers who purchase at inflated day-one prices.
"When every IPO is popping, that's when you see deals thrown together in a hurry," notes Matt Kennedy, senior strategist at Renaissance Capital. The rush to market during boom periods often means weaker companies get listed alongside the quality names.
The Big Names
SpaceX represents the most anticipated listing. Elon Musk dropped hints last fall about taking the company public at a $1.5 trillion valuation—roughly 10 times the largest VC-backed IPO ever. That would create a stock with immediate S&P 500 weight, forcing index funds to buy billions in shares.
The economics are compelling. SpaceX operates Starlink, the satellite internet business generating billions in recurring revenue. The rocket division has near-monopoly status in commercial launches. And Starship, if it achieves full operational capability, could reshape the economics of space travel.
But $1.5 trillion implies a premium to most aerospace and defense stocks. Investors need to believe in extraordinary growth for decades, not just years.
OpenAI carries an even more speculative profile. Reports suggest a potential $1 trillion valuation—for a company that's barely profitable and faces existential questions about its corporate structure, Sam Altman's leadership style, and competition from well-funded rivals like Anthropic and Google.
Anthropic itself may list in 2026. Backed by Google and Amazon, the Claude chatbot maker has raised at valuations around $18 billion. That's rich for a company burning cash to compete with OpenAI's massive lead in consumer awareness.
The Smarter Approach
Ritter's research offers one useful filter: companies with at least $100 million in annual revenue at IPO tend to perform better long-term than smaller, pre-profit listings.
SpaceX clears that bar easily—Starlink alone generates multi-billion-dollar revenue. OpenAI probably qualifies too. But many of the companies riding the AI wave into public markets won't have that fundamental foundation.
Profitability at listing doesn't predict future performance, interestingly. Plenty of money-losing IPOs became huge winners. But revenue scale at least indicates product-market fit and sustainable business activity.
The tactical advice from market veterans: don't buy at the open. Wait until end of day, or even a few days later, for the initial frenzy to settle. Real price discovery often takes months—specifically, six months, when insider lock-up periods expire and pre-IPO shareholders can finally sell.
What This Means for 2026
The IPO calendar matters for the broader market.
Heavy issuance absorbs capital that might otherwise flow into existing stocks. When SpaceX and OpenAI come to market, institutional investors will need to raise cash somewhere. That creates selling pressure across portfolios.
Conversely, successful IPOs generate wealth effects that can support risk appetite more broadly. Early employees and investors who see paper gains often rotate into other assets, spreading liquidity through the system.
For traders tracking market positioning, the IPO calendar becomes another variable to monitor. The weeks surrounding mega-listings tend to see elevated volatility as capital reallocates.
The bottom line: 2026's IPO class could be historic. But historical returns suggest buying at the open usually isn't the winning strategy. Patience, selectivity, and attention to fundamental quality matter more than getting in first.