Nvidia Eyes Mid-February for First H200 Shipments to China
A major policy shift under Trump opens the door for Nvidia to sell its second-most powerful AI chips to Chinese clients, pending Beijing's approval.
The AI chip cold war is thawing.
Nvidia has told Chinese clients it plans to begin shipping H200 chips before the Lunar New Year holiday in mid-February, according to Reuters. The initial batch would total 5,000 to 10,000 chip modules—equivalent to 40,000 to 80,000 H200 AI processors.
Nvidia shares rose more than 1% Monday on the news.
The Policy Shift
The planned shipments mark a dramatic reversal from Biden-era restrictions that banned advanced AI chip sales to China on national security grounds. President Trump said this month that Washington would permit H200 sales with a 25% fee, triggering an inter-agency review of license applications.
For Chinese tech giants like Alibaba and ByteDance, H200 access would be significant. The chips are roughly six times more powerful than the H20, a downgraded processor Nvidia designed specifically to comply with previous export controls.
Beijing's Approval Required
There's a major caveat: China hasn't signed off yet.
Chinese officials held emergency meetings earlier this month to discuss the matter. One proposal under consideration would require each H200 purchase to be bundled with domestic chips at a set ratio—a condition designed to support China's own semiconductor industry.
"The whole plan is contingent on government approval," one source told Reuters. The timeline could shift depending on Beijing's decision.
Production Capacity
Nvidia is preparing for sustained demand. The company told Chinese clients it plans to add new production capacity, with orders for that capacity opening in the second quarter of 2026.
The message is clear: if regulatory approval comes through, Nvidia is ready to scale.
The Bigger Picture
For Nvidia, China represents a massive market that was largely off-limits under the previous administration. The H200 opportunity could add billions in revenue if both governments align.
For U.S.-China relations, the chip deal signals a shift toward managed competition rather than technological containment. The 25% fee creates a revenue stream while allowing American companies to compete.
The semiconductor cold war isn't over—but the rules are changing.