Oil, Defense Stocks Surge After US Captures Venezuela's Maduro
Chevron and ConocoPhillips jump 7% in premarket as US military operation to capture Nicolas Maduro reshapes energy and defense sector outlook.
The US military's weekend capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro sent shockwaves through global markets Monday morning, with oil majors and defense contractors leading a broad rally as traders reassessed geopolitical risk premiums across multiple asset classes.
Chevron jumped 7% in premarket trading, with ConocoPhillips matching that gain. Exxon Mobil added 3%. The moves reflect expectations that US oil companies will benefit from Trump administration plans to rebuild Venezuela's crumbling oil infrastructure.
"We're going to rebuild the oil infrastructure, which will cost billions of dollars, it will be paid for by the oil companies directly. And we're going to get the oil flowing the way it should be," Trump said following what the Pentagon dubbed "Operation Absolute Resolve."
The Operation and Its Aftermath
The military action began before 2:00 AM local time Saturday, with more than 150 aircraft striking targets across northern Venezuela. Delta Force operators extracted Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores from their Caracas residence, transporting them to New York via the USS Iwo Jima to face narco-terrorism conspiracy charges.
Vice President Delcy Rodriguez has assumed acting presidential duties, though Venezuela's Supreme Court ordered the transition. The power vacuum has created immediate uncertainty for the country's 1 million barrel per day oil production.
That relatively modest output, representing less than 1% of global supply, explains why crude prices themselves remain contained. Markets had already priced in some form of Venezuela conflict after weeks of escalating tensions. But the beneficiaries are now clear: US oil companies with existing Venezuelan footprints.
Chevron's Advantaged Position
Chevron stands out as the immediate winner. The company maintained operations in Venezuela through various sanctions regimes, giving it established relationships and infrastructure that competitors lack. ConocoPhillips and Exxon, which both exited during earlier political upheavals, now face the task of rebuilding from scratch if they want back in.
The broader market outlook for 2026 already anticipated energy sector strength, but Venezuela adds optionality that wasn't fully priced. If infrastructure rebuilding proceeds as Trump outlined, Chevron could see meaningful production gains within 18-24 months.
Defense Contractors Find New Tailwinds
The operation also boosted defense stocks, though gains were more modest. Palantir Technologies led the sector, climbing 3.5% premarket on speculation that its AI-powered analytics software played a role in the mission's planning and execution.
Northrop Grumman, RTX, General Dynamics, and Lockheed Martin each added less than 1%. The muted reaction reflects defense stocks' already elevated valuations following strong 2025 performance.
Palantir's move is more interesting. The company holds a $10 billion Army contract and a $448 million Navy deal, positioning it as a key beneficiary if the Venezuela operation signals a broader shift toward tech-enabled military operations. But the stock trades at 181 times forward earnings, meaning any disappointment in future contract wins could trigger sharp corrections.
Safe Haven Assets Rally
Gold surged 2.3% to $4,430 per ounce, its highest level since December 29. The precious metal remains within striking distance of its all-time high of $4,549 set late last month.
"Gold is benefiting from the U.S.-Venezuela escalation over the weekend. This has increased demand for the safe-haven precious metal as it adds to uncertainties market participants are already grappling with," said Zain Vawda, analyst at MarketPulse by OANDA.
J.P. Morgan projects gold averaging $5,055 per ounce by Q4 2026, suggesting the current rally has room to run if geopolitical tensions persist.
What Traders Should Watch
The Venezuela situation remains fluid. China purchases roughly 80% of Venezuela's oil exports at steep discounts, and Beijing's response to the Maduro arrest could introduce new variables.
Oil traders should monitor any disruption to current Venezuelan production, which would temporarily tighten global supply even as US companies prepare longer-term rebuilding efforts. Defense investors should watch for new contract announcements that might clarify which companies actually benefit from the operation.
For now, the market's initial read is straightforward: this is bullish for US oil majors and incrementally positive for defense tech. Whether those gains hold depends on how smoothly the post-Maduro transition proceeds.