Palantir, NXP Report After Hours With AI Focus
Two closely watched names release Q4 results Monday evening. Palantir eyes $1.32B revenue on AI momentum; NXP targets 6.5% growth despite auto chip headwinds.
Two of the market's more polarizing names report after the bell Monday: Palantir and NXP Semiconductors.
Both stocks have moved on AI themes this year, though from different angles. Palantir has become a pure-play on enterprise AI adoption. NXP represents the broader semiconductor complex benefiting from compute demand. Their results will test whether the AI spending story has legs beyond hyperscaler budgets. Citi recently upgraded Palantir to Buy with a $235 target, while ASML's record orders have lifted expectations across the chip sector.
Palantir: The AI Premium Gets Tested
Palantir enters earnings trading at nosebleed multiples after a 135% gain in 2025.
The Street expects $1.32 billion in revenue—a 13% sequential increase—and earnings of $0.21 per share. Both figures imply continuation of the momentum that's defined Palantir's recent trajectory.
Q3 2025 set a high bar. Palantir beat revenue estimates by 8%, posted 63% year-over-year growth, and achieved a record 51% adjusted operating margin. U.S. commercial revenue surged 121%. The company raised full-year guidance to $4.4 billion, representing 53% annual growth.
Those are exceptional numbers for a company that spent years struggling to scale commercial business. The pivot to AI—particularly the AIP platform that helps enterprises deploy large language models—has transformed the narrative.
What traders want Monday:
U.S. commercial bookings. This segment has been Palantir's growth engine. Any deceleration would raise questions about AI adoption rates.
Government contract momentum. Defense spending remains strong under the current administration. Palantir's government business should benefit, but the timing of large contract awards is lumpy.
Margin sustainability. A 51% adjusted operating margin is remarkable for a software company. The question is whether that's peak margin or a new baseline.
2026 guidance. Analysts are modeling roughly $5.5 billion in revenue for full-year 2026. Anything below that range would disappoint.
The risk is valuation. Palantir trades at roughly 45x forward revenue—a multiple that assumes perfect execution. The stock is rated "hold" by analysts, with 12 sell ratings against only 6 buys. That skepticism reflects how much good news is already priced in.
A beat alone won't move shares much. Palantir needs to raise guidance materially to justify current prices.
NXP: Auto Chips in Focus
NXP Semiconductors tells a different story—one of cyclical recovery rather than explosive growth.
Analysts expect $3.31 billion in revenue, up 6.5% year-over-year, and EPS of $3.30. That would mark an improvement from recent quarters where automotive chip demand disappointed.
NXP gets roughly half its revenue from automotive semiconductors. The company supplies chips for infotainment systems, advanced driver-assistance systems, and electric vehicle power management. When auto production rises, NXP benefits. When it stalls, the company feels the pain.
2025 was mixed. Revenue declined year-over-year in several quarters as automakers worked through excess inventory built up during the chip shortage era. Industrial and IoT segments also faced headwinds as customers delayed orders.
Q3 showed tentative signs of stabilization. Revenue of $3.17 billion was down only 2.4% annually, and management guided for Q4 improvement. The guidance implied the inventory correction was ending.
What traders want Monday:
Auto segment trends. Are car manufacturers finally ordering again? The inventory adjustment should be mostly complete. If Q4 shows genuine recovery, NXP's 2026 outlook improves considerably.
China exposure. NXP derives significant revenue from Chinese customers, including EV manufacturers. Trade policy uncertainty creates ongoing risk.
Industrial recovery. Non-auto segments have lagged. Any sign of demand returning from IoT, industrial, and communications customers would broaden the recovery story.
Full-year 2026 guidance. Consensus expects roughly $13.5 billion in revenue, implying mid-single-digit growth. NXP's outlook will set the tone for semiconductor expectations more broadly.
Shares have underperformed the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index over the past year, partly because auto exposure has been a drag while AI chips have soared. Companies like Seagate have benefited more directly from AI infrastructure buildout. A strong NXP report could narrow that gap.
The Setup
Both stocks face high expectations heading into reports.
Palantir needs to extend its momentum or risk giving back some of its 135% 2025 gains. The valuation leaves no room for disappointment. Bears have been wrong for two years, but they're not extinct.
NXP needs to confirm that the auto semiconductor cycle has troughed. Investors want evidence that the destocking is over and growth can resume. A miss would suggest the recovery is taking longer than expected.
The results drop after 4 PM Eastern. Conference calls follow. Markets will digest both alongside Disney's morning results and the broader earnings wave this week that includes Amazon, Alphabet, and AMD.