Tesla Braces for Q4 Miss After Unusual Delivery Guidance
Tesla publicly released delivery expectations ahead of Q4 results, signaling potential disappointment. Michael Burry says he's not shorting the stock.
Tesla did something unusual this week: it told Wall Street what to expect.
In a rare move, the company publicly released a delivery consensus for Q4 2025 via its investor relations website. The compiled estimate shows 1.6 million vehicle deliveries for the full year—down roughly 8% from 2024 and marking a second consecutive annual decline.
For a company that typically lets results speak for themselves, the preemptive disclosure suggests management is getting ahead of disappointment.
Why This Matters
Tesla shares traded between $452 and $458 on the final day of 2025, up 22% year-to-date and hovering near the 52-week high of $489 reached earlier in December. The stock has been on a tear, driven more by autonomous driving hype than vehicle sales.
But the core business is struggling. Delivery growth has stalled as competition intensifies, particularly in China where BYD has taken the lead. The 1.6 million unit estimate would represent the second straight year of declining deliveries—a stark contrast to the growth story that once justified Tesla's premium valuation.
The company's decision to release expectations publicly breaks with tradition. Tesla typically reports quarterly deliveries within days of quarter-end without advance warning. The early disclosure reads as an attempt to manage expectations rather than surprise investors.
Burry Weighs In
Michael Burry, the investor made famous by "The Big Short," addressed Tesla directly on X Wednesday.
When asked if he was shorting TSLA, Burry replied simply: "I am not short."
The comment matters because Burry has famously bet against overvalued assets, and Tesla's current valuation—roughly 230 times forward earnings—makes it an obvious target for bears. His denial removes one prominent short thesis from the conversation, though it doesn't validate the bull case either.
Burry's track record is mixed. He was early on subprime, but he's also been early (and wrong) on other macro calls. Still, his refusal to short Tesla at these levels is notable given his contrarian bent.
The Valuation Question
Tesla trades like a technology company but delivers cars. That disconnect has persisted for years, justified by promises of autonomous driving, energy storage, and robotaxis.
The recent Wall Street targets for 2026 suggest strategists expect the broader market to rise 10-15% next year. Tesla bulls need the company to outperform that baseline significantly to justify current multiples. Bears argue the stock is priced for execution that hasn't materialized.
Deutsche Bank and RBC both raised price targets on Tesla recently, citing the autonomous driving opportunity. But the Cybercab—Musk's steering-wheel-less robotaxi—won't reach full production until Q2 2026 at the earliest. Between now and then, Tesla needs to sell cars.
What the Options Market Says
Tesla remains the most actively traded options underlying on the Street. As we covered in the options market Santa squeeze, traders have been aggressively targeting the $500 strike with bullish call bets.
That positioning hasn't changed despite the delivery concerns. Call volume continues to outpace puts by a wide margin, suggesting traders expect the stock to push higher regardless of Q4 results.
The disconnect between fundamentals and sentiment isn't new for Tesla. The stock has repeatedly confounded bears who focus on traditional metrics. Whether that pattern holds through another delivery miss remains to be seen.
The 2026 Roadmap
Investor attention has shifted to upcoming catalysts. The sub-$25,000 model, expected to launch in 2026, could reignite volume growth. Cybercab production, if it scales successfully, validates the autonomous thesis. Full self-driving improvements could unlock the robotaxi network that Musk has promised for years.
But those catalysts are months away. In the near term, Tesla faces a Q4 report that likely confirms another year of declining deliveries. Management's unusual decision to release expectations early suggests they know what's coming.
The S&P 500's third consecutive double-digit year was powered in part by AI enthusiasm across the Magnificent Seven. Tesla benefited from that tailwind despite its auto struggles. Whether the AI premium holds through a delivery miss will test investor conviction.
Trading Implications
Tesla reports Q4 deliveries within days. The 1.6 million annual target is now the bar. Anything below risks a selloff; anything above could trigger a relief rally.
Longer term, the stock's trajectory depends on execution. The autonomous driving technology, the Cybercab launch, the energy business—these are the factors that justify a $1.5 trillion market cap. Car sales alone don't get you there.
For now, Tesla enters 2026 with familiar dynamics: sky-high expectations, a polarized investor base, and a CEO whose attention spans multiple ventures. The delivery miss, if it comes, will test whether the AI-and-autonomy thesis can withstand fundamental headwinds.
Burry may not be shorting. But someone should be asking why the company felt the need to warn investors in advance.