Gold Nears $5,000 as Haven Rally Shows No Signs of Slowing
Spot prices hit $4,924 record as easing Greenland tensions fail to cool demand. Analysts see year-end targets rising toward $5,400.
The rally just keeps going.
Spot gold touched $4,924 per ounce Thursday, setting another all-time high even as easing geopolitical tensions sparked a broader equity rally. The metal has gained roughly $200 since breaking $4,700 earlier this week.
For context: gold traded around $2,600 at the start of 2025. A year later, prices have nearly doubled.
Why It's Still Running
The intuitive read on Thursday was risk-on. President Trump pulled back tariff threats against European allies, stocks rallied for a second straight day, and the VIX dropped below 20.
Gold should have cooled. It didn't.
That tells you something about the underlying demand. Central bank buying, retail safe-haven flows, and institutional reallocation are driving a structural bid that doesn't respond to daily risk sentiment shifts.
China's central bank added to gold reserves for the 15th consecutive month in December. India's physical demand remains elevated. And Western ETF flows, which turned negative in late 2025, have reversed sharply in January.
The $5,000 Question
Multiple analysts now see gold crossing $5,000 in the first half of 2026.
J.P. Morgan's commodity team expects prices to average $5,055 per ounce in Q4 2026, with a path toward $5,400 by late 2027. Goldman Sachs sees $4,900 by year-end, which gold nearly reached Thursday.
Nicky Shiels, head of metals strategy at MKS PAMP, published a $5,400 target for 2026—a 30% year-over-year gain that would extend 2025's extraordinary performance.
The most aggressive call comes from Julia Du at ICBC Standard Bank, who sees potential for gold to reach $7,150. That requires everything to go right for bulls: persistent inflation, dollar weakness, and continued central bank diversification.
The Fed Factor
Real interest rates remain gold's fundamental driver.
The Fed holds rates at 3.5-3.75%, and bond futures price a 16% chance of a January cut. If inflation proves stickier than expected—and tariff pass-through could keep price pressures elevated—the Fed may cut fewer times than the market anticipates.
Higher-for-longer rates typically pressure gold by increasing the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset. But that relationship has broken down over the past year as geopolitical uncertainty and de-dollarization trends overwhelmed yield math.
Gold rallied through 2025 despite rates staying elevated. The traditional models aren't working.
Silver's Parallel Move
Silver hit $100 per ounce this week, extending its own historic run.
The white metal benefits from both safe-haven flows and industrial demand—particularly from solar panel manufacturing and electronics. That dual demand profile has driven silver to outperform gold on a percentage basis over the past 18 months.
For traders, the gold-silver ratio has compressed from 90:1 in early 2024 to roughly 50:1 today. That shift suggests silver is catching up after years of underperformance.
For Traders
At $4,924, gold is stretched by any technical measure. The RSI on the daily chart sits above 70. Momentum is strong, but so is the risk of profit-taking.
The question is whether you're trading the metal or investing in it.
Short-term traders face elevated volatility and crowded positioning. A surprise resolution to tariff concerns or a hawkish Fed pivot could trigger sharp pullbacks.
Longer-term allocators see a different picture. Central bank buying provides structural support. Geopolitical uncertainty isn't resolving. And the dollar's reserve currency status faces more questions than at any point in decades.
Gold at $5,000 looked unlikely a year ago. It looks probable now.