Economy

Brent crude rises 1.3% as U.S.-Iran talks remain deadlocked. Tehran offers to reopen strait without nuclear concessions. Trump unlikely to accept.

Markets price 99.7% probability of no change at April 28-29 meeting. March CPI spike to 3.3% complicates rate cut timeline as Powell's tenure nears end.

U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro ends criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Move removes key obstacle to Kevin Warsh's confirmation.

Oil drops 1% on hopes peace talks proceed despite tough rhetoric. VP Vance leads U.S. delegation as two-week truce deadline arrives.

Brent crude nears $96 after Iran-US naval incidents and the TOUSKA ship seizure, with the ceasefire expiring Wednesday.

Tehran reverses course 24 hours after declaring the strait open, triggering oil volatility as the ceasefire framework shows signs of strain.

March minutes showed officials considering rate increases. With oil above $100 again, those discussions get a lot more serious.

Oil prices have fallen but the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. Physical supply chains face months of disruption even if peace talks succeed.

University of Michigan index falls 11% to its lowest reading ever. Inflation expectations spike to 4.8% as Iran conflict rattles household confidence.

Inflation remains stubbornly above the Fed's 2% target for the 22nd straight month. Core CPI at 3.1% cements the case against rate cuts in 2026.

Cleveland Fed president says borrowing costs may need to rise if prices don't cool. Internal estimates show April inflation hitting highest level since 2024.

Brent crude climbs to $111.51 and WTI breaks $115 as the president's ultimatum to reopen the Strait of Hormuz expires at 8 PM Eastern.

The Iran war has crushed rate cut expectations. Markets now see 95% odds the Fed holds in April as oil-driven inflation clashes with weakening jobs.

Payrolls rebounded sharply from February's loss, adding 178,000 jobs versus the 57,000 consensus. Unemployment held at 4.3% while wage growth cooled.

Crude surged 63% in March as the Iran conflict triggered the largest oil supply disruption in history, reshaping global energy markets.

WSJ reports the president told aides he would accept ending the military campaign even if the Strait remains closed, pushing futures higher Monday.

Economists expect 57,000 jobs added in March after February's shocking 92,000 loss. But markets will be closed Good Friday when the data drops.

Brent crude settled at its highest level since 2022 after Iran declared a security zone across the Strait, choking 20% of global seaborne oil.

WTI crude climbed back toward $92 after Iran rejected Washington's 15-point peace proposal, erasing part of yesterday's relief rally.

Oil prices dropped nearly 6% after the US submitted a 15-point ceasefire plan to Iran. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed but traders bet on diplomacy.

Brent crude recovered from Monday's $92 low to trade above $103 after Iran denied Trump's claim of productive negotiations, restoring the war premium.

The Federal Reserve kept rates at 3.5%-3.75% and removed projected cuts from its 2026 outlook. Powell cites oil shock uncertainty.

Gold trades between $5,050 and $5,200 despite the Iran conflict. Rising yields and dollar strength are offsetting traditional haven demand.

The March 17-18 meeting includes updated economic projections and dot plot. Rates expected unchanged, but oil shock complicates the outlook.

The International Energy Agency coordinates its biggest strategic reserve release in history, including 172M barrels from the US, but markets view it as insufficient.

Consumer prices rose 0.3% in February with core inflation at 2.5% YoY, capturing the economy's baseline before the Iran conflict sent oil prices surging.

Delayed employment data smashes 55K forecast as health care leads gains. Unemployment dips to 4.3%, but 2025 revisions cut 400K jobs from prior counts.

Goldman Sachs estimates consumers will absorb 67% of tariff costs by mid-2026, as the S&P 500's CAPE ratio hits 39.9 — a level last seen during the dot-com peak.

BLS postpones nonfarm payrolls data after partial government shutdown halts operations. Markets rallied Friday without the key employment data.

ADP report shows weakest private hiring since mid-2024. Professional services shed 57K jobs as labor market cools ahead of Friday's nonfarm payrolls.

Precious metals stage recovery with gold up 6% to $4,913 and silver jumping 10% after Friday's historic crash. Analysts debate whether the rout signals a top or a buying opportunity.

Precious metals suffer worst single-day losses since 1980. Gold falls 11% from $5,600 record. Chinese speculation, CME margin hikes, and Fed chair pick trigger selloff.

Former Fed governor gets the nod after months of speculation. Markets digest hawkish pivot as confirmation battle looms.

Former Fed governor Kevin Warsh tapped to replace Powell in May. Dollar rises, Treasury yields climb on expectations of tighter policy.

Federal Reserve keeps benchmark rate at 3.5%-3.75% as expected. Markets await Powell's press conference for signals on 2026 rate path.

Spot gold sets fresh all-time high above $5,100 amid government shutdown risk, Fed uncertainty, and sustained central bank buying.

Senate Democrats threaten to withhold votes on $1.2 trillion spending package over Homeland Security provisions. Deadline is Friday.

FOMC expected to hold rates at 3.5%-3.75% at January 27-28 meeting. Markets look ahead to June for next potential cut.

University of Michigan final January reading rises to 56.4, topping forecasts. Year-ahead inflation expectations drop to 4.0%, lowest since January 2025.

Spot prices hit $4,924 record as easing Greenland tensions fail to cool demand. Analysts see year-end targets rising toward $5,400.

Spot gold hits fresh all-time high amid tariff fears and Fed uncertainty. Analysts now see $5,000 in first half of 2026.

10-year yield jumps to 4.29% as Japanese government bonds crater on snap election news. 30-year approaches 5% threshold traders have been watching.

Spot gold climbs to fresh record amid transatlantic trade tensions. Analysts see path to $5,000 as geopolitical risks compound.

President wants NEC director in current role, boosting Kevin Warsh's odds. Treasury yields rise as markets price hawkish Fed chair outcome.

Precious metals hit fresh all-time highs as geopolitical tensions and Fed uncertainty fuel a flight to safety. Analysts see silver at $100 and gold at $5,000.

Core CPI expected at 2.7% year-over-year when the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports Tuesday, slightly higher than November's reading.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reveals criminal investigation over headquarters renovations, calling it a pretext for White House pressure on interest rates.

The economy added just 50,000 jobs in December as 2025 hiring totals the lowest since the pandemic. Unemployment dips to 4.4%, but the labor market's slowdown is undeniable.

President Trump orders $200 billion in mortgage bond purchases through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, pushing 30-year rates to their lowest level since February 2023.

December payrolls data and a potential Supreme Court decision on Trump tariffs create a two-front catalyst for markets on January 9.

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari signals the Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its rate-cutting cycle, just months before Jerome Powell's term expires.

The White House postponed scheduled tariff increases on upholstered furniture and kitchen cabinets, citing ongoing trade negotiations.

Mark Zandi expects aggressive Fed easing in early 2026, contradicting both market pricing and the FOMC's own projections. Here's his reasoning.

Bullion tops $4,500 per ounce for the first time as central bank buying and geopolitical tensions drive the metal to its strongest annual performance in 46 years.

Silver topped $81 in overnight trading before reversing sharply, falling to $75 as traders take profits on the metal's 166% year-to-date gain.

Powell admits the wealth divide is 'clearly a thing' as the top 10% own 87% of stocks while the bottom 50% own 1.1%. Monetary policy can't solve this.

Silver surged past $75 for the first time ever on Dec 26, with prices nearing $78 as the metal's 2025 gain reaches 169%, its best year since 1979.

The 9-3 December vote split signals ongoing disagreement among FOMC members about how fast to cut rates, with the dot plot projecting just one reduction next year.

Silver surged above $70 for the first time, up 140% in 2025, outpacing gold as rate cuts and geopolitical tensions fuel a historic precious metals rally.

Crude prices surge after the Coast Guard intercepts oil tankers off Venezuela, escalating Trump's blockade of sanctioned shipments.