January Jobs Report Delayed to Feb 11 by Shutdown
BLS postpones nonfarm payrolls data after partial government shutdown halts operations. Markets rallied Friday without the key employment data.
The most important economic release of the month didn't happen. The Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed that the January employment situation report—originally scheduled for Friday, February 6—has been postponed to Wednesday, February 11, after a partial government shutdown forced the agency to halt operations.
The shutdown began Saturday, January 31, after Congress failed to pass a government funding package. An impasse triggered by disputes over DHS immigration enforcement actions left federal agencies including BLS unfunded for several days. The government reopened Tuesday afternoon, but the damage to the data pipeline was already done.
What Got Delayed
It's not just the headline nonfarm payrolls number. The shutdown disrupted the entire BLS release calendar:
- January Employment Situation: Rescheduled from Feb 6 to Feb 11
- December JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover): Delayed from its original Tuesday release
- Metro area employment data: Also pushed back
For traders and economists who rely on employment data to calibrate Fed expectations, the gap is meaningful. December's report showed just 50,000 jobs added—the weakest reading since the pandemic-era labor market. ADP's January private payrolls reading of just 22,000 added to concerns that hiring is decelerating faster than consensus expects.
Markets Didn't Care—This Time
The absence of the jobs report on Friday didn't prevent a massive rally. The Dow surged past 50,000 for the first time, the S&P 500 jumped nearly 2%, and semiconductor stocks posted their best day in months. Risk appetite had its own catalysts—AI spending reframes, consumer sentiment beats, and technical buyers stepping in after a brutal midweek selloff.
But the missing data creates a blind spot. The Fed held rates steady at 3.5-3.75% at its January meeting, with two governors dissenting in favor of a cut. January's employment picture is central to whether Chair Warsh—who took over from Powell—leans toward easing at the March meeting.
The ADP Signal
Without BLS data, the ADP report from Wednesday is the only January labor market read available. It showed private employers added just 22,000 jobs, roughly half of what economists expected. Professional services shed 57,000 positions. The report painted a labor market that's cooling faster than the Fed's projections suggest.
ADP doesn't always track BLS closely—the methodologies differ significantly. But a miss of that magnitude at least raises the probability that Friday's delayed report, whenever it lands, could surprise to the downside.
Why the Delay Matters for Markets
Here's the issue: when the January jobs report drops on Tuesday, the market will be processing it in a completely different context than it would have on Friday. Friday's rally has reset sentiment. The S&P 500 is back in positive territory for 2026. If the jobs number is weak, the reaction could be more pronounced because it hits a market that just recovered its footing rather than one already in selloff mode.
A weak number would strengthen the case for a March rate cut—currently priced at roughly 40% probability. A strong number would validate the "no hurry" stance the Fed majority has maintained since January.
Government Shutdown Overhang
This was the second partial shutdown in less than a year. The pattern of last-minute funding failures is becoming a recurring theme, and each episode introduces noise into economic data that markets, corporations, and the Fed itself depend on for decision-making.
The economy section of the calendar is about to get crowded. CPI data, PPI, and the delayed jobs report all land in the same week. That's a lot of signal hitting at once—and a lot of potential volatility for a market that just found its footing.
February 11 is the date to watch.