Q1 Earnings Season Kicks Off: Banks Report April 14
Wall Street expects 13.2% earnings growth for the S&P 500 in Q1. JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup lead off next week as oil and inflation loom.
Earnings season begins next week with the big banks. JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo report April 14. Bank of America follows April 15. Together, they'll set the tone for what analysts expect to be a strong quarter for corporate profits.
Wall Street is projecting S&P 500 earnings growth of 13.2% year-over-year for Q1, with revenue expanding 9.7%. That would mark the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth, totaling an estimated $629.3 billion across the index.
But the headline numbers don't tell the full story. This quarter comes with unusual cross-currents that make forward guidance more important than backward-looking results.
JPMorgan Sets the Benchmark
JPMorgan Chase kicks off bank earnings Tuesday morning. Analysts expect EPS between $5.32 and $5.50, representing roughly 7% year-over-year growth.
The key metrics to watch:
| Focus Area | Why It Matters |
|---|---|
| Net Interest Income | Management guided $104.5B for full year; margin compression signals ahead |
| Investment Banking Fees | Expected up mid-to-high teens; M&A backlog clearing |
| Credit Quality | $2.2B reserve build last quarter; consumer stress signals |
| Apple Card Integration | First full quarter with the portfolio |
CEO Jamie Dimon will face questions about the Apple Card acquisition, which closed in January. The portfolio adds consumer lending exposure just as credit card delinquencies tick higher. How JPMorgan marks that book will telegraph its view on consumer credit risk.
Investment banking is the bright spot. After a dismal 2025, deal activity is picking up. Management has guided for fee growth in the mid-to-high teens as the M&A backlog clears.
Wells Fargo's Asset Cap Watch
Wells Fargo reports alongside JPMorgan, and the narrative is different. The bank remains under a Federal Reserve asset cap that limits balance sheet growth. Every quarter brings the same question: when does the cap come off?
Progress has been substantial. The consent orders that triggered the cap are being addressed. But the Fed hasn't signaled a timeline for removal. WFC's investment banking expansion—an attempt to diversify income away from traditional lending—depends partly on that constraint lifting.
Efficiency ratio and expense guidance matter here. Wells Fargo has been restructuring for years. The market wants to see those efforts translate into better returns.
Bank of America's AI Bet
Bank of America reports April 15 with an expected EPS around $1.00. Two things stand out.
First, net interest income should grow 5-7% for the full year. With the Fed holding rates steady, BAC's deposit base generates steady returns. That's table stakes for a bank this size.
Second, the "Erica 2.0" AI assistant rollout should show operational cost savings. BAC has invested heavily in AI-driven customer service. This quarter will reveal whether those investments move the expense needle.
The bank is also expected to post its 16th consecutive quarter of year-over-year trading revenue growth. In a volatile market driven by geopolitical uncertainty and oil swings, trading desks have had plenty of opportunity.
The Macro Headwinds
Bank earnings arrive against a challenging backdrop. Oil prices above $110 per barrel are pushing inflation expectations higher. The March CPI report is expected to show a 0.9% monthly increase, largely driven by energy costs.
Higher inflation complicates the Fed's rate path. Banks typically benefit from higher rates through expanded net interest margins. But if inflation forces rates higher for longer, credit quality could deteriorate as consumers and businesses struggle with elevated borrowing costs.
Delta Air Lines and Constellation Brands report before the banks, offering early reads on how rising fuel and input costs are affecting corporate margins. Their guidance will shape expectations for the broader earnings season.
What to Watch
The numbers will be fine. Everyone knows that. The question is whether management teams remain confident about the second half.
Forward guidance matters more than usual this quarter. With the Iran conflict ongoing, supply chains disrupted, and inflation running hot, corporate visibility is limited. How executives frame uncertainty will move stocks more than beating estimates by a few cents.
Credit commentary from the banks will telegraph consumer health. Card delinquencies, reserve builds, and charge-off guidance reveal what the economy looks like from the lending window. Pay attention to the language around "normalization" versus "deterioration."
Earnings season runs through late April. Tech heavyweights like Netflix and TSMC report April 16, followed by the Magnificent Seven in the final week. But next week's bank reports establish the narrative everyone else responds to.