Tesla Gets $510 Target as Cantor Sees Cybercab Momentum
Cantor Fitzgerald lifts price target 44% on Tesla, citing accelerating Cybercab production and diversified growth across energy and AI businesses.
Tesla's robotaxi bet is starting to look less like speculation and more like a production reality.
Cantor Fitzgerald raised its price target on Tesla to $510 from $355 Monday, representing 44% upside and one of the most bullish calls on the Street. Analyst Andres Sheppard maintained an Overweight rating, citing accelerating production timelines across Cybercab, Semi, and energy storage.
"Volume production for the Cybercab, Semi, and Megapack 3 is on track for fiscal year 2026, with Optimus production lines also targeted to launch next year," Sheppard wrote. That's a lot of product launches compressed into a single year—and all of them represent Tesla's pivot away from traditional vehicle sales toward higher-margin, AI-driven businesses.
Cybercab Ahead of Schedule
The Cybercab, Tesla's steering-wheel-free autonomous vehicle, started rolling off production lines in mid-February—several weeks ahead of the originally planned April start. Twenty-five units were recently spotted at Gigafactory Texas, marking a step-up in testing and validation activities.
Tesla aims to produce 2 million Cybercabs annually at maturity. The vehicle has no traditional controls, relying entirely on Full Self-Driving software—which creates regulatory hurdles but also eliminates significant hardware costs. If FSD works at the required safety level, the economics become compelling: lower manufacturing cost, no driver, continuous operation.
The robotaxi service currently operates in Austin and several California cities. Expansion to seven additional markets is planned for 2026, per Tesla's Q4 earnings commentary.
Capex Ramp Tells the Story
Sheppard's note highlighted Tesla's capital expenditure trajectory: $9.2 billion in 2025, climbing to $12 billion in 2026. That 30% increase signals confidence in scaling new product lines. Companies don't pour billions into manufacturing capacity unless they see demand.
The Semi is another wildcard. Tesla has delivered a handful of units to PepsiCo and other customers, but volume production has been perpetually delayed. A 2026 production launch, if achieved, would open the commercial trucking market—a segment where Tesla's electric powertrain economics could be particularly disruptive.
Not Without Risks
Tesla trades at 65x forward earnings—a valuation that only makes sense if these new businesses deliver. Traditional auto sales have declined for two consecutive years. The stock's performance depends entirely on robotaxi, energy storage, and AI execution.
The regulatory path for Cybercab remains unclear. A vehicle without a steering wheel requires explicit federal approval, and the NHTSA recently opened a probe into Tesla's door release mechanisms. Autonomous vehicle approvals have historically been slow and contentious.
Still, the momentum is real. "We remain bullish on TSLA over the medium to long term," Sheppard concluded. "We continue to see meaningful future upside from Energy Storage, FSD, Robotaxis, Semis, and Optimus."
Technical Picture
Tesla closed Friday at $433.72. The $510 target implies the stock would need to reclaim its late-2024 highs and hold. Key resistance sits at $480, which marked the February peak before the Iran oil shock pulled risk assets lower.
Support at $400 has held on multiple tests. The stock's correlation to broader tech sentiment means macro factors—oil prices, Fed policy, geopolitical risk—will influence trading as much as company-specific catalysts.
For bulls, the setup is straightforward: production milestones validate the AI pivot, multiple expansion follows. For bears, it's the same playbook that's driven Tesla volatility for years—promises that look great in slide decks but have repeatedly slipped in execution.