JPMorgan Beats Q4 Estimates on 40% Trading Revenue Surge
The nation's largest bank posts $5.23 adjusted EPS, topping estimates as equities trading soars and CEO Dimon warns of 'elevated asset prices.'
JPMorgan Chase kicked off bank earnings season with a beat.
The nation's largest bank reported adjusted earnings of $5.23 per share Tuesday morning, topping the $5.00 consensus estimate from LSEG analysts. Revenue came in at $46.77 billion versus $46.2 billion expected. The stock was flat in premarket trading as investors digested the results alongside the CPI inflation report released simultaneously.
The headline profit number looked weaker—down 7% to $13.03 billion, or $4.63 per share—but that's because JPMorgan took a $2.2 billion hit related to its acquisition of the Apple Card loan portfolio from Goldman Sachs. Strip that out, and the underlying business outperformed.
Trading Stole the Show
Equities trading revenue surged 40% to $2.9 billion, about $350 million above expectations. JPMorgan credited strength across its prime brokerage business, which services hedge funds, as well as cash and derivatives trading.
Fixed income trading rose more modestly, in line with the low-teens percentage gain management had previously guided. Combined with the equities strength, total markets revenue significantly exceeded estimates.
This is exactly what analysts expected heading into earnings—that capital markets activity would offset pressure elsewhere. Investment banking fees also remained robust, benefiting from the pickup in M&A and debt issuance that marked the second half of 2025.
Net Interest Income Held Steady
Companywide revenue rose 7% year-over-year, with net interest income also climbing 7% to $25.1 billion. That roughly matched analyst estimates and suggests the headwinds from the Fed's rate cuts haven't materialized as quickly as some feared.
The bank issued guidance for 2026: full-year net interest income of about $103 billion and adjusted expenses of about $105 billion. Both figures are "market dependent," which is corporate-speak for "rates and trading volumes will determine whether these numbers move."
Dimon's Warning
CEO Jamie Dimon sounded cautiously optimistic in the earnings release.
"The U.S. economy is resilient," he said. "While labor markets have softened, conditions do not appear to be worsening. Meanwhile, consumers continue to spend, and businesses generally remain healthy."
But he added a caveat that traders should note: "We remain vigilant, and markets seem to underappreciate the potential hazards—including from complex geopolitical conditions, the risk of sticky inflation and elevated asset prices."
That's a notable hedge given the ongoing uncertainty around Fed policy and Trump's credit card rate cap proposal. Dimon didn't address either directly in the release, but analysts will certainly probe these topics on the earnings call.
What It Means for Bank Week
JPMorgan's results set a high bar for the rest of the sector. Wells Fargo, Bank of America, and Citigroup report tomorrow morning, followed by Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley Wednesday.
The trading beat suggests risk appetite stayed elevated through year-end, which bodes well for Goldman and Morgan Stanley given their outsized capital markets exposure. The NII stability is encouraging for the money-center banks that depend more heavily on lending spreads.
Options traders were pricing in a 3.75% move for JPM shares heading into results. The stock's muted premarket reaction suggests the beat was largely expected—investors had already positioned for strong trading revenue after management's upbeat comments at a December conference.
For the broader market, JPMorgan's results remove one uncertainty from an already crowded week. The inflation report, which hit at the same time as earnings, will likely drive the day's action more than any single bank's numbers.